BFCM 2026 · LTV and payback calculator

    A cheaper first order means a cheaper customer has to pay for it.

    Judge each offer by the new customers it brings in. See first-order profit at the offer price, full-price repeat orders over 12 months, the most you can pay to acquire someone, and when they pay you back.

    Free, no email to use itRuns in your browser12-month view
    01

    Your new-customer numbers

    Use a normal stretch, before any offer. CAC here means media spend ÷ new customers, not the platform's number.

    $
    %
    $
    $
    mo
    Shipping, returns and payment fees
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    %
    %
    First-order profit
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    At full price
    12-month profit per customer
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    First order plus repeats
    Payback
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    Months to earn back CAC
    Max CAC for your target
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    Read
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    02

    The offers you're weighing

    Repeat orders come back at full price. If deal buyers repeat less than your normal customers, lower their repeat rate. Check your last promo cohort before you assume they don't.

    BaselineNo offer

    Full-price first order. Everything below is measured against this.

    Percentage offSitewide

    %
    %

    Amount offWith a minimum spend

    $
    %
    %

    Free giftWith every order

    $
    %
    03

    What each offer lets you pay for a customer

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    Per new customerBaselinePercentage offAmount offFree gift

    Repeats are spread evenly over 12 months. If yours cluster early, real payback comes sooner.

    The part this calculator can't check

    Your CAC is probably lower than it should look.

    Returning buyers and subscribers sneak into "new customer" counts, so CAC reads cheaper than it is. The free Blindspot audit splits them out before you set a CAC ceiling for November.

    • Subscription renewals counted as new orders
    • Paid social retargeting your own email list
    • Platform CAC versus the CAC your bank account sees
    Run the free BFCM audit

    Send me my numbers and the full workbook

    Your inputs and results, plus the Excel planner with the discount ladder and payback grid by discount and CAC.

    I may follow up once about your Black Friday plan. That's it.

    04

    How the math works

    First-order profit
    Net revenue at the offer price, minus product cost at full price, fulfillment, payment fees and any gift.
    12-month profit per customer
    First-order profit plus repeat orders × full-price profit per order × the offer's repeat rate.
    Stand-still CAC
    The CAC that keeps your 12-month profit-to-CAC ratio where it is today. If the offer can't buy customers this cheap, it's worse than no offer.
    Max CAC for your target
    First-order profit plus the repeat profit earned inside your payback window.
    Payback month
    (CAC − first-order profit) ÷ monthly repeat profit. Zero if the first order already covers CAC.