BFCM 2026 · Offer calculator

    Your Black Friday discount also goes to customers who were already coming back.

    Put in a normal stretch of numbers and see what each offer costs per order, how many more orders it needs to break even, and how much margin you hand to people who'd have bought at full price.

    Free, no email to use itRuns in your browserMonth-one math, no attribution
    01

    Start with a normal stretch

    Use a period the same length as your offer. Running a two-week sale? Use your last two normal weeks. Count new and returning orders.

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    Shipping, returns and payment fees
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    MER today
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    Net revenue ÷ media spend
    Break-even MER
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    Below this, every order loses money
    Profit per order
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    Profit after ads
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    What's left once media is paid
    Read
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    02

    Set up the offers you're weighing

    Edit any of the three. Each one is compared to running no offer at all.

    BaselineNo offer

    Your normal stretch, priced as-is. Every offer below is measured against this.

    Percentage offSitewide

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    Amount offWith a minimum spend

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    Free giftWith every order

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    03

    Pick a goal and see what it takes

    Profit after ads is the number that matters here. Hold it flat and grow volume, or ask the offer to grow it.

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    Per offerBaselinePercentage offAmount offFree gift

    Scroll sideways on a phone. Verdicts compare the MER you'd need against the MER you get today.

    04

    Where more spend starts paying

    More spend needs more revenue to cover it. The gap between the two lines is what the offer has to make up through better conversion, email and SMS, or organic demand.

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    Net revenue needed to hit the goalNet revenue at today's MER
    The part this calculator can't check

    All of this assumes your MER today is real.

    Subscription renewals, refunds and broken purchase events can all push it off. The free Blindspot audit checks the number this whole plan rests on before you bet November on it.

    • Subscription renewals sitting inside new-customer revenue
    • Refunds and marketplace orders padding net revenue
    • Purchase events that drop when traffic spikes
    • One-day attribution windows driving budget calls on peak days
    Run the free BFCM audit

    Read-only access. Every finding sized in dollars. Delivered in 3 to 5 days.

    Send me my numbers and the full workbook

    Your inputs and results, plus the Excel planner: spend grid, discount ladder, new-customer payback and a day-by-day pacing plan.

    I may follow up once about your Black Friday plan. That's it.

    05

    How the math works

    Profit per order
    Net revenue per order, minus product cost at full price, fulfillment, payment fees and any gift. Product cost doesn't shrink when you discount, which is why discounts bite harder than they look.
    Profit after ads
    Total orders × profit per order, minus media spend. Accountants call this CM3.
    MER
    Net revenue ÷ media spend, across all channels, with no attribution. During BFCM, platform-reported ROAS swings on reporting lag alone, so this plan runs on the blended number.
    Break-even MER
    Net revenue per order ÷ profit per order. Below it, profit after ads goes negative.
    Orders needed
    (Profit goal + media spend) ÷ profit per order.
    Given to returning customers
    Returning share × today's order count × the discount or gift per order. It's margin you give to people who'd likely have bought anyway. Some of them would buy more because of the offer, so treat it as the upper bound.
    Scope
    Month one only: orders inside the offer window, not the repeat orders they lead to. The workbook adds new-customer payback over 12 months.